A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
